Criticality in football: effects of match location in UEFA Champions League

Abstract

Introduction: Although the research on the effects of situational variables on the performance of football teams is currently a hot topic, its possible association with the temporal analysis of goals scored has not been sufficiently explored. Indeed, the relationship between both lines of investigation may uncover evidence about the critical moments of the game. Purposes: (1) to examine the effects of match location and match status on match periods (6 periods of 15-min) in which goals were scored; (2) considering the distinction of "critical" and "non-critical" goals, to understand whether critical moments are influenced by match location. Methods: data of 859 goals scored in the group stage of UEFA Champions League, seasons 2016/2017, 2017/2018 and 2018/2019, were collected and, subsequently, analysed using Multinomial Logistic Regression procedures. Results: in general, a large amount of goals were scored in the 6^th period (76-90 minutes), contrasting with what happened in the 1^st period (1-15 minutes); however, the variable match location did not significantly influence the probability of a goal being scored in any of the predefined match periods. Despite that, playing at home increased the chances of scoring “non-critical†goals in 5^th (61-75 minutes) and 6^th periods, having the 1^st period as reference. Regardless of the match location, coaches must adopt attacking strategies since the 1^st period in order to score the opening goal (a critical event) and, thus, substantially increase the odds of winning the match.