Examining the Superiority of Professional Football Teams with the Contribution of Expected Goal (xG) Value
Abstract
The abbreviation for Expected goal is xG in statistics of football The xG measures the quality of a chance by calculating the likelihood that it will be scored from a particular position on the pitch during a particular phase of play. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the xG metric in terms of contextual variables such as teams' final table status, match status, and venue. The xG scores of teams (n=760) from the 380 matches of the 2021–2022 Turkish Super League season were collected for this study. Contextual variables indicated the following; the success level, success status and advantage of the teams. Accordingly, the groups were organized as follows; final table rank was five groups (i.e. 1st four teams, 2nd four,…), match status was three groups (win, draw and lose) and venue was two groups (home, away). The results showed that top ranked teams scored higher xG than lower ranked teams. 1st four and 2nd four teams were significantly higher than 5th four teams. xG scores of the winning teams were significantly higher than the draw and losers. Home teams also achieved a significantly higher xG score than away teams. The results suggest that the expected goal (xG) metric can evaluate the success of the teams.
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