Single crowd impact in são paulo state local derbies: looks at são paulo state football champioships (2013-2020) and Brazilian national league (2012-2019)
Abstract
The prohibition of visiting crowd in the so called “clássicos paulistas” (São Paulo state local derbies) was stablished at April 2016, in order to reduce violence events. Beyond all controversy surrounding that measure, it has been largely discussed regarding its influence in the matches balance, once only home team has crowd support. This work aims to analyze if such features matters in the result of these matches, looking for answer the following question: Has single crowd in local derbies a significative impact on home advantage (HA)? For this, it has been considered all matches played by four teams (Corinthians, Palmeiras, Santos and São Paulo) in the group stage of São Paulo state football championship (Campeonato Paulista) between 2013-2020, and in the Brazilian National League (Campeonato Brasileiro Série A) for eight seasons from 2013-2019, proposing a comparative point of view prior and post the single crowd rule, summarizing 138 local derbies in these two leagues, 66 prior and 72 post. Home advantage approach was based on Pollard (1986) and for statistics it was used one factor analysis of variance. Home advantage variations revealed more relevant for Brazilian National League meanwhile little expressive in São Paulo state football championship. For the local derbies in general (both leagues), HA figures 63,2 ± 8,3% prior and 75,9 ± 3,2% after single crowd measure. Although a significant percentage increase, direct effects of this prohibition are not determinant, but suppressed by other sporting effects.
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