Investigando a vantagem de jogar em casa nas ligas mundiais de futebol antes e depois do surto de covid-19
Resumo
O objetivo deste estudo foi avaliar os efeitos do COVID-19 (ausência de espectadores) nos resultados dos times de futebol em 5 ligas populares do mundo (Premier League inglesa, Série A italiana, LaLiga espanhola, Bundesliga alemã e Ligue francesa 1). Esta pesquisa foi descritiva-comparativa. Assim, foram analisados os resultados das equipas de futebol desde a época 2015/16 até meados da época 2019/20 (antes da COVID) e a continuação da época 2019/20 até à época 2020/21 (depois da COVID). O número de partidas analisadas foi de 10.853, incluindo 2.546 após partidas do COVID. As variáveis analisadas foram: vantagem em casa, proporção de gols marcados (HGSR) e proporção de gols sofridos (HGCR) em jogos em casa. Os resultados do teste t mostraram uma diminuição significativa da vantagem em casa (p=0,044) apenas na Bundesliga alemã. Além disso, no EPL, nenhuma das variáveis apresentou diferença significativa. Nas ligas italiana, alemã e francesa, o HGCR aumentou significativamente após a pandemia de COVID (p<0,04). Na liga espanhola, o HGSR apresentou um decréscimo significativo (p<0,04). Neste estudo, foi examinada apenas a ausência de espectadores sobre a vantagem de jogar em casa. Embora os espectadores possam influenciar os resultados, as equipes ainda apresentam melhor desempenho em casa durante a pandemia de COVID. Assim, podemos concluir que a localização dos eventos pode ser importante. Além disso, os árbitros podem ser injustamente tendenciosos a favor de um lado ou de outro pela presença de multidões. Assim, pesquisas futuras podem examinar outros fatores.
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